The rental market is a key driver for investor decisions across the GTA. CMHC's 2024 rental market results show a notable shift: more supply is finally coming online, but rent growth remains elevated.
Key 2024 signals from CMHC
CMHC reported that:
- The rental supply grew 4.1%, the fastest pace in decades.
- The national vacancy rate rose to 2.2% from 1.5% the year before.
- Average two-bedroom rents rose 5.4%.
- Turnover rents (rent on newly occupied units) increased 23.5%.
- Condominium apartment vacancy was 0.9%.
These are national numbers, but they frame the environment for investors in Milton and the GTA.
What this means in practice
- More supply, still tight: A higher vacancy rate helps slow runaway rent growth, but the market is still tight by historical standards.
- Turnover rent gap: The difference between average rent and turnover rent suggests strong demand when units change hands.
- Condo resilience: Very low condo vacancy implies continued competition for well-located units.
How to use this in Milton and GTA decisions
- If you are buying a rental, underwrite conservatively. Use realistic rent assumptions and allow for more competition in lease-up.
- If you already own a rental, monitor turnover timing and market rates before setting renewal expectations.
- If you are a first-time landlord, build a contingency buffer for vacancy and maintenance.
Bottom line
The rental market is shifting slowly toward balance, but the GTA remains tight. Investors should plan for stable demand with slightly more supply pressure than in 2022 and 2023.
Sources:
ClickHomes Research
Real estate market research and analysis team at ClickHomes AI, covering Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area with daily TREB/MLS data insights.
